Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Odds

I appreciated a blog post earlier this year by Coho bicycle builder, Charles Lathe concerning riding bicycles and desensitization. His brief story was to explain that he wasn't directly interested in riding in harsh weather other than the fact that it desensitized him to riding in more of the same. If you never ride in cold rain, you'll hate it big time when you do.

Last night on my way home from work I got a flat tire. The tire was a kevlar belted Ruffy Tuffy, a tire I've only flatted once in several thousand miles. I decided to just shoulder the bike and walk home. It wasn't until this morning that I inspected the tire and tube for the culprit. The rubber had de-laminated at the base of the valve stem. There was no apparent reason for why this had happened. There was no distress in that area.

This flat was my tenth in a little over a month. I don't know what the odds are for something like that, but they must be low. It seems like I'd sooner flip ten heads in a row with a penny than get ten flats in one month. I realize that getting or not getting flats on a bicycle tire is not as controlled an experiment as flipping coins, but I have to believe that the chances I'll get another flat in the next 24 hours are extremely low.

I hope.

Here's the tale of the tape:
October 14th on the Coho I get a flat in Mt. Washington in light rain. Fix on the road. I get home and as I'm lifting the bike up on to its hook I hear a hiss from the front tire- a puncture from a small piece of wire.
October 18th during a group ride also in the rain I flat the rear tire of the Kogswell. I find the sliver of glass and patch it. Less than 5 miles later another flat in the same tire-a sliver of glass in a different place.
October 26th pre-riding the On Again/Off Again century ride I flat the Coho's rear on Glatfelters rd.
November 6th I get an immediate hiss from the rear tire of the Coho after (foolishly) riding down the glass-strewn alley behind my house. In the morning the front is also flat. Both from glass.
November 8th during the On Again/Off Again group ride the Kogswell's rear tire's bead pops out of the rim, abruptly (and loudly) exploding the tube. A replacement holds fine for many more miles until while homeward bound, a flake of glass flats the same tire.
November 18th while rounding a corner the front tube on the Miyata fixed gear mysteriously delaminates.



The Kogswell's rear tube after blowout

I have spent a lot of time trying to find patterns and reasons for this unlikely string of flats. Riding in the rain is more likely to cause a flat tire. I should not ride in my back alley. Grand Bois tires, while they are fast and pliable, are much too soft for city commuting. However, none of this thinking is likely to change the likelihood of me getting another flat on my way home tonight. At least the ten I've already had have helped to desensitize me when it does happen.